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Quarterly Economic Report Q3 2026
Jon Schwartz, Jose Sevilla, Timothy Lee, CFA, Ivan Asensio, Ph.D., Darrell Leong, Steve Johnson, CFA, Christi Fletcher, Michael Duranceau, Edward Lee, Emelynn Abreu, Travis Dugan
Key takeaways
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report is a quarterly review and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
01
Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting in June 2026.
The committee held rates steady, and Warsh presented a new communication style and framework reset.
02
Inflation remained persistently elevated.
Core personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, came in at 3.4% year over year in May, above the Fed's 2% target.
03
Steady labor conditions prevailed during Q2 2026.
The unemployment rate stayed mostly flat from April to June, ranging between 4.2% and 4.3%.
The data
Inflation remained sticky.
High energy prices, supply disruptions tied to the conflict in Iran and lingering tariff effects affected inflation.
Source: Bloomberg, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 07/14/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. *Average inflation targeting.
Source: Bloomberg, UST Yield and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 06/30/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in June 2026.
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting underscored the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target and more direct policy approach.
"This committee will deliver price stability."
Kevin Warsh
Federal Reserve Chairman of the Board, June 17, 2026, press conference
Strength in growth-oriented sectors shaped the market.
IPOs, biotechnology and technology significantly outperformed, while broad US equities delivered solid gains.
Sources: Bloomberg and ICE BofA Indices. Data as of 6/30/2025. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Sources: Bloomberg and ICE BofA Indices. Data as of 6/30/2025. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Broad fixed income markets delivered modest returns in Q2.
Credit sectors outperformed high-quality government bonds due to resilient economic growth and strong corporate fundamentals.
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