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Quarterly Economic Report Q2 2026
Jon Schwartz, Jose Sevilla, Timothy Lee, CFA, Ivan Asensio, Ph.D., Darrell Leong, Steve Johnson, CFA, Christi Fletcher, Michael Duranceau, Edward Lee, Emelynn Abreu, Travis Dugan
Key takeaways
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report is a quarterly review and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
01
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate throughout Q1 2026.
The Fed's actions reflected a cautious stance amidst inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
02
Inflationary pressures resumed due to geopolitical conflict.
The conflict in Iran caused a sharp rise in oil prices, reversing earlier disinflation trends.
03
The unemployment rate was range bound between 4.3% and 4.4%.
The average number of jobs grew by approximately 68,000 per month in Q1 2026.
The data
Inflation progress reversed.
Due to conflict in the Middle East and oil price spikes, core personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, rose to 3.3% in March 2026.
Source: Bloomberg, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 04/10/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. *Average inflation targeting.
US growth faced a challenging economic environment.
Gross domestic product, or GDP, declined to 2.1% in 2025. Inflation, geopolitics and cautious consumer behavior contributed to the slowdown.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and SVB Asset Management. Data as of 04/10/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Market sector performance shaped by oil price shock.
Energy and commodity sectors outperformed while technology stocks and broad US equities declined.
All returns above are on a total return basis. 2026 returns are on an aggregate basis through 03/31/2026. Source: Bloomberg and Bloomberg Barclays Indices. Data as of 03/31/2026. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The bond markets were pressured by inflation and oil prices.
US Treasury yields rose sharply during the quarter and investment-grade corporate bonds saw widening spreads.
Source: Bloomberg and ICE BofA Indices. Data as of 03/31/2026. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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